Scurtă istorie a gândirii economice, de la Aristotel până astăzi

Scurta istorie a gandirii economice (material interesant, introductiv)

din Scurtă istorie a gîndirii economice de la Aristotel pînă azi

(de Jacques Valier, traducere de Valentin Protopopescu)

Capitolul 7. Marile curente ale gîndirii contemporane (post-keynesiană)

Introducere:

John Maynard Keynes, 1st Baron Keynes, CB 5 June 1883 – 21 April 1946
keynes

was a British economist whose ideas have profoundly affected the theory and practice of modern macroeconomics, as well as the economic policies of governments. He greatly refined earlier work on the causes of business cycles, and advocated the use of fiscal and monetary measures to mitigate the adverse effects of economic recessions and depressions. His ideas are the basis for the school of thought known as Keynesian economics, as well as its various offshoots.

In the 1930s, Keynes spearheaded a revolution in economic thinking

John Maynard Keynes si teoriile sale

John Maynard Keynes (1883 –1946) s-a nascut, a studiat si a predat in Cambridge. Principalele sale scrieri sunt: “The Economics Consequences of the Peace” – Consecintele economice ale pacii (1919), “A Treatise on Money” – Tratat despre bani (1930), dar este cunoscut mai ales pentru cartea sa “The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money” – Teoria generala a folosirii mainii de lucru, a dobanzii si banilor (1936), care a revolutionat stiinta economica sustinand finantarea prin deficit bugetar ca pe o cale de a pune capat Marii Crize. El ofera solutii sub forma cresterii cheltuielilor publice.

Keynes considera ca stiinta economica este o ramura a logicii, nu o stiinta naturala. Economia era vazuta ca o stiinta a gandirii cu ajutorul modelelor combinata cu arta alegerii modelelor relevante. Spre deosebire de stiinta naturii, materialul la care ea se aplica nu numai ca nu este constant, el este chiar neomogen in timp. Opinia lui, preluata de fapt de la Robbins, este ca economia, care se ocupa de motive, anticipari si incertitudini psihologice, este o stiinta morala, pentru ca foloseste preponderent introspectia si judecati de valoare.

In ceea ce priveste econometria, el crede ca nu se poate ajunge foarte departe decat inventand modele noi si imbunatatite. In acest domeniu, progresul consta in ameliorari progresive in alegerea metodelor. Pentru a-si sustine mai ferm teoria, el ii ofera drept contraexemple pe doi dintre profesorii lui de economie de la King’s College Cambridge. Primul dintre ei este Arthur C. Pigou (care nu si-a ameliorat modelul simplu si invechit pe care il folosea), iar cel de al doilea este Alfred Marshal (care din dorinta de a inveta noi modele si de a fi realist, si-a incurcat modelele refuzand ideea de a folosi scheme abstracte). Pentru ca un model sa nu-si piarda generalitatea si valoarea ca mod de gandire, trebuie sa nu contina valori reale pentru functiile sale variabile, deoarece devine inutilizabil.

Keynes observa ca in chimie, fizica si alte stiinte ale naturii, menirea experimentului este de a furniza tocmai acele valori reale ale diferitelor cantitati si factori care apar intr-o ecuatie sau formula; dupa aflarea acestora, ele raman definitive. In economie, a introduce cifre intr-un model duce la anularea valorii sale, pentru ca cifrele nu se vor mai potrivi la o alta incercare. Concluzia sa este ca a transforma un model intr-o formula cantitativa inseamna a ii distruge utilitatea ca instrument de gandire.

Lectiile lui Keynes (Business Magazin, 2009)

Keynes and his Ideology of Planning by Tibor R. Machan

Today: The Economist, Oct 8th 2010 – Larry Summers: a neo-Keynesian aristocrat

Documentary filmmaker Charles Ferguson:

“Mr Summers, a former president of Harvard, former treasury secretary, and soon-to-be-former director of the White House National Economic Council, never saw a regulation he didn’t want to annihilate. Thus, Mr Summers and his market-fundamentalist colleagues helped immanentise the financial eschaton.”

Tzimisces wrote: Oct 8th 2010 5:00 GMT (i.e. a very interesting, common-sense user comment on the article above in The Economist, online edition)

“I think the alternative is to not let the economic philosophy dominate everything. It’s a criticism I’m constantly making, I don’t think social life is determined by economic factors but I see most of the dominant political ideologies of today assuming that it is.

Economic thinking can only take you so far, after that other philosophies come into play. Keep economists in their place and don’t let them think they can run everything, the domain of their theory is limited. I think Keynes got that, the General Theory struck me as having a limited (if still fairly large) domain, Keynes didn’t seem to think it could usher in utopia, just fix a certain number of problems of the day.

This is a subject I’ve been taking up on my blog and will be going into a lot more detail over the next few weeks (months?).”

IN CONCLUZIE, pe scurt…

Putem conta pe o reusita si daca cititorul a constientizat mai lesne faptul ca in economie rezultatele care par, pe buna dreptate, cele mai solide, nu sunt niciodata definitive.

Critica teoriei si a politicii keynesiene incepand din anii ’70 si decaderea gandirii marxiste in anii ’30 ilustreaza perfect aceasta efemeritate.

In general, avem motive sa deplangem starea dominanta a economiei politice de astazi. Economistii construiesc modele, ceea ce nu este criticabil in sine. Criticabil este, in schimb, caracterul strict implicit al doctrinelor si teoriilor pe care se sprijina aceste modele – e vorba de o adevarata interdictie neformulata de a pune in discutie asemenea baze, care sunt cel mai adesea un amestec cu totul nesatisfacator de analize neoclasice si keynesiene.

Celor care au astazi pretentia de a construi modele economice epurate de orice ideologie le amintim, parafrazandu-l pe Keynes, ca economistii care se cred scutiti de influente doctrinare sunt adesea sclavii unei doctrine implicite. Progresul NU este niciodata asigurat.

Jacques Valier Breve Histoire de la pensee economique d’Aristote a nos jours (Editions Flammarion, Paris, 2005)